martes, febrero 20, 2007

Lo que opinan los expertos

Rohit Talwar preguntaba en Linke-In, sobre el futuro del turismo en los próximos 10 a 20 años. Una respuesta dificil pero se puede intentar. Los expertos que le contestaron dijeron lo siguiente:

Tom Siegler dijo:

The mental model your question generates is too complex for my limited intellect. Too many inter/intra-connected variables. I wonder if there are a small number of factors that will override the others.

Overall, I think that the future is bleak for the N. American market if any one of a number of likely events occur. The current model for travel and tourism relies on too many things being just so. Such as, cheap fuel, relatively low risk to get there and security at the end point. Even automobile travel could be severely disrupted with another "oil crisis." Again all too likely.

Other countries that have positive trade balances and expanding personal wealth will increase travel. That is, except where security is very low. I don't see much change in EU trends given the mass transit and relatively small distances. Pacific rim countries' citizens acquire wealth and mobility, travel will spike upward.

Coupled with continuously expanding remote communications capabilities, business travel will decline. The younger generations are very comfortable with non-corporeal communication. They will dominate the market in 20 years.

Amitabh Thard contestó así:

I can think of 2 factors that are important.

1. Terrorism: The effect this has had on tourism has been generally ignored. Having lived in India previously, I know that Kashmir was a hub for travellers, but since the terrorism in the area became so bad, the tourists got scattered to other places like Nainital, Ooty, Shimla. It increased their business. With political instability, South East Asian, Middle Eastern and Eastern European tourism is having an ucertain period.
2. Lack of reputation: Everybody goes to the famous places like Jamaica, The Bahamas etc. But many people want to seriously get away. So they go to places that are not well known to get away from the crowds. Many islands in South America, South East Asia etc are getting increased tourism. 10 years ago, not many people heard of Phuket in Thailand and suddenly everybody started to go there to get away, now it is packed.

Michael Stephen Ruiz dió esta respuesta:

The cruise line industry must drastically change before it can entertain serious profit. Serious profit can only be incurred will be through advanced technological changes in materials to utilizing alternative energy options. Such ships will carry more passengers, provide superior luxuries, handle rough weather, and wear out less. Additionally, with the implementation of alternative energies instead of oil, costs will be driven lower increasing profit margins. Naturally, the travel industry will increase through the seas making the Titantic situation a thing of the past. At present, I am working on such a situation.

Rose Klimovich señaló :

I think that technology will play a factor here. As more people go online for social communities and for virtual worlds, it will change how they think of travel. Do you get to live next to someone in a virtual world before you travel to meet them? Do you learn to ski thru a moving video game before a ski trip? Do resorts and cruises offer 3D experiences like the holodecks in StarTrek.

Gilbert Hernandez afirmó:

To me security will be a major factor to consider.
Another one would be the tourism for people in their 50's and 60's that will have to offer a lot more than it does in the present.

Alfredo Ascanio escribió:

Un problema crítico es el terrorismo en algunos países que ya eran líderes en el turismo mundial como España, USA, Inglaterra, India....y además es posible que con el avance tecnológico de video-conferencias y de la telefonía en Internet los viajes de negocios se puedan reducir. El viaje de placer siempre ha presentado una demanda un poco inelástica en relación a los precios, pero lo que estará más de moda será el eco-turismo y el turismo de aventura. Es mi opinión personal.

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